The app doesnt store any personal information. Schellens a b c Michail Papazoglou d Dimitrios Thomakos e Show more Add to Mendeley Share Cite Get rights and content Under a Creative Commons license open access Abstract In an effort to bridge the gap between academic and governmental initiatives on quantitative conflict modelling, this article presents, validates and discusses the Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI), the quantitative starting point of the European Union Conflict Early Warning System.Based on open-source data of five risk areas representing the structural conditions characterising a given country (political, economic, social, environmental and security areas), it evaluates the risk of violent conflict in the next one to four years.Using logistic regression, the GCRI calculates the probability of national and subnational conflict risk.Several model design decisions, including definition of the dependent variable, predictor variable selection, data imputation, and probability threshold definition, are tested and discussed in light of the models direct application in the EU policy support on conflict prevention. your friends download free bus travel onto their cards too or use their app to download your own.
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